Key takeaways

• Ethereum and Solana are expected to solidify their positions as the leading blockchain platforms by 2026, targeting different markets.
• The dominance of Ethereum and Solana will make it challenging for new smart contract chains to gain traction.
• By 2025, new general-purpose blockchain platforms will struggle to compete with Ethereum and Solana due to their established network effects.
• Solana is becoming increasingly popular among developers and consumers, indicating a shift in the blockchain space.
• There is a potential for a positive shift in Ethereum sentiment, driven by improvements in metrics like TVL and institutional interest.
• The Solana Foundation’s proactive approach in supporting builders and onboarding institutions is a significant factor in its ecosystem’s growth.
• The value of a blockchain’s token does not always reflect the value created by the chain itself.
• The market has not yet settled on a valuation for Ethereum, with estimates varying widely.
• Builders, activity, liquidity, and users are expected to converge on Ethereum and Solana, boosting asset performance.
• Robinhood is likely to surpass Coinbase by 2026 due to its rapid product development and market performance.
• Privacy-preserving KYC technologies are expected to become standard across various applications, enhancing data security.
• Centralized exchanges may face challenges as wallets capture more value and provide better fiat on-ramps.

Guest intro

Arnav Pagidyala is a Partner at Bankless Ventures, an early-stage Web3 venture fund backing 0-to-1 companies across DeFi, consumer, and fintech. He previously spent three years at HashKey Capital, one of Asia’s largest crypto funds, investing in onchain commerce, smart contract compliance, and MEV solutions.

The future of Ethereum and Solana

• “The duopoly of Ethereum and Solana will become clear in 2026, with each targeting different markets.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Ethereum is positioned as the slow, risk-averse DeFi chain for real-world asset money markets.
• Solana is moving towards a decentralized Nasdaq vision, focusing on consumer crypto.
• “This duopoly is going to entrench itself and make it very hard for a new smart contract chain to come into the market.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• By 2025, it will be difficult for new general-purpose chains to disrupt Ethereum and Solana.
• Application-specific chains struggle to justify their existence due to strong network effects of existing chains.
• Solana is becoming the preferred platform for founders and consumers in the blockchain space.
• A strong reversal in Ethereum sentiment is expected, driven by improvements in various metrics.

Solana’s ecosystem and market positioning

• The Solana Foundation takes a hands-on approach to onboarding institutions and supporting builders.
• “One of them you could argue is like the Solana Foundation they are very different than the Ethereum Foundation.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Solana’s proactive strategy contributes significantly to its ecosystem’s success.
• “The value of a blockchain’s token does not necessarily correlate with the value created by the chain itself.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Solana’s market position is strengthened by its appeal to developers and consumers.
• The foundation’s operational strategy is a key factor in Solana’s resilience and growth.
• Solana faces unique challenges from newer chains but is actively working to maintain its position.
• “They definitely do have to work hard to maintain their position… it’s definitely gonna be a very competitive battle.” – Arnav Pagidyala

Ethereum’s evolving market dynamics

• The market has not yet figured out how to value Ethereum, with estimates ranging widely.
• “The market has not really figured this out yet… some value at like $80… others say it should be worth like $30,000.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Builders, activity, liquidity, and users are expected to converge on Ethereum, leading to strong asset performance.
• Ethereum and Solana are facing structural challenges, but their network effects remain strong.
• “Ethereum still has its drawbacks… there are cracks starting to show in Ethereum’s and Solana’s microstructure.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• There is a duopolistic race for store of value between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Ethereum could potentially become the canonical store of value in the future.
• “Could it become the canonical store of value at some point in the future? I think it would be naive to potentially think otherwise.” – Arnav Pagidyala

Robinhood and Coinbase’s competitive landscape

• Robinhood is likely to gain a lead over Coinbase by 2026 due to its rapid product development.
• “It’s likely to be Robinhood… they’ve shipped 11 new products crossing over a $100,000,000 in run rate.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Robinhood’s intentional product design strategy could enhance user engagement.
• “I think they’re very intentional about their product design… this is actually very smart in my opinion.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Robinhood’s user experience is superior, appealing particularly to younger generations.
• “The UX of it is so good it’s so simple like I can log in face ID into Robinhood.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Coinbase may abandon the content coin narrative and shift towards becoming a bank replacement.
• Coinbase might develop two separate apps to better serve its banking ambitions.

The rise of privacy-preserving technologies

• Privacy-preserving KYC technologies can prevent data leaks by not requiring counterparties to store sensitive information.
• “The beautiful thing with a lot of the technology we have in crypto… we’re able to KYC without our counterparty actually storing that data locally.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Privacy-preserving KYC will become a standard across various emerging applications beyond crypto.
• “I think this privacy-preserving KYC will become a standard across a number of emerging applications.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Privacy-focused projects in crypto are still in their early stages and have not gained significant traction.
• “I think it’s just still a bit early for privacy believe it or not… the marginal new user in crypto they’re not so concerned about privacy.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Wallets will increasingly capture value and could disrupt centralized exchanges by providing better fiat on-ramps.
• “I think centralized exchanges… will face a lot of headwinds from wallets… if we have better fiat on ramps.” – Arnav Pagidyala

The impact of decentralized finance on traditional systems

• Centralized exchanges will lose power as the entire capital stack moves on-chain.
• “I do believe centralized exchanges will lose power and that’s very very positive for the space.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Centralized exchanges will list good assets under more favorable terms as they face a survivability problem.
• “Centralized exchanges are incentivized to list good assets because they also have this survivability problem.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Institutions will likely explore building on established chains due to their network effects.
• “My intuition is that this year a lot of these institutions will understand that building on a chain with deep network effects is important.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Traditional financial institutions prefer chains they can control but are also exploring decentralized options.
• “It seems like they kind of trying it all… they would prefer chains that they have more control over.” – Arnav Pagidyala

The evolving landscape of initial coin offerings (ICOs)

• ICOs are seen as a way to engage the community and drive significant value.
• “I’m incredibly bullish on ICOs for a few reasons… it just gets the community involved.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• As long as ICO platforms curate quality projects, ICOs will thrive in 2026 and beyond.
• “As long as these platforms continue to do a good job curating better projects… I’m very bullish on ICOs in 2026 and beyond.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The success of ICOs depends on the ability of platforms to select successful projects.
• Community engagement is a critical factor for the success of ICOs.
• ICO platforms play a crucial role in the success of projects by ensuring quality curation.
• The future of ICOs looks promising if platforms maintain high standards in project selection.

The strategic advantages of Morpho in decentralized finance

• Morpho has a clean risk isolation architecture that makes it compelling for institutions.
• “Morpho has very very clean risk isolation… this very clean separation and management of risk makes it compelling for institutions.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Morpho’s share of total active loans is expected to grow from 10% to 25-30% this year.
• “My prediction is I suspect right now there are 10% of total active loans issued I suspect that’ll grow to maybe 25 to 30% this year.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Morpho’s market structure is simplified to five key components, making it attractive for institutions.
• “Every market is made up of just five things… it’s very very simple and clean and that’s just what institutions want.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Aave v4 is evolving towards a structure similar to Morpho’s, indicating a shift in the DeFi landscape.
• “Aave v four is moving much more towards this Morpho-esque architecture.” – Arnav Pagidyala

The role of social media in the crypto space

• Social media companies will inevitably enter the crypto space, particularly with stablecoin integrations.
• “It is definitely a when not if question whether X is going to dive into this space.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The trend of integrating decentralized finance protocols into existing social media platforms could redefine the crypto wallet landscape.
• “You could see the possibility with something like X entering the fat wallet space.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The technical barriers for building in crypto are diminishing, allowing smaller teams to create high-quality products.
• “It’s possible this was never possible before now… smart contract auditors have been blown away by how effective Opus 4.5 has been.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Social media platforms could leverage DeFi to enhance their offerings and user engagement.
• The convergence of social media and finance could significantly impact market competition.

The future of crypto as infrastructure

• Crypto will transition to becoming ubiquitous infrastructure rather than a niche online community.
• “I do believe this will be a defining trend of 2026… crypto will become ubiquitous infrastructure.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The crypto community is fatigued by scams and is shifting towards a more builder-focused approach.
• “People are just very tired of the scams the rug pulls… everybody’s just a lot more keen to move towards a more proper builder direction.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The role of crypto in society is expected to evolve towards mainstream adoption.
• The focus on building legitimate and constructive projects reflects a critical sentiment shift within the community.
• The shift towards a builder-focused approach is driven by the desire for more legitimate projects.
• The future of crypto lies in its ability to integrate with traditional systems and provide value beyond speculation.