Galaxy Digital cuts Bitcoin year-end target to $120K amid lack of government Bitcoin purchases, leverage wipeout
Previously, Galaxy's Alex Thorn predicted that Bitcoin could reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Galaxy Digital has reduced its year-end Bitcoin forecast from $185,000 to $120,000, citing market selloffs and changing dynamics.
- Institutional involvement and passive flows have signaled Bitcoin's 'maturity era,' lowering volatility and moderating price cycles.
Share this article
Galaxy Digital’s research arm, led by analyst Alex Thorn, has adjusted its 2025 year-end Bitcoin outlook to $120,000, trimming expectations from its earlier $185,000 bull-case scenario.
i’m lowering my BTC bullish EOY target to $120k (prev $185k) 👀
just sent this note to clients
whale distribution, non-BTC investments, treasury company malaise, and other factors contributed to BTC headwinds in 25
(long-term future still bullish, of course) pic.twitter.com/2aj1eoJlno
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 5, 2025
The team cited factors such as ongoing market selloffs, whale distribution, and growing investor interest in alternatives like AI and gold. Rapid stablecoin growth has also redirected venture and equity interest into fintech and payment infrastructure.
Despite these factors, the structural investment case for Bitcoin remains robust, with expectations of continuing institutional absorption and passive investment flows moderating volatility and supporting market maturity.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in a recent interview with CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ that Bitcoin is likely to trade in a range between $100,000 and $125,000 through year-end, barring any major catalysts.
According to him, continued government overspending supports the long-term value of crypto as a hedge against fiat debasement. He noted, however, that markets will likely remain soft until new catalysts, such as pending crypto market structure legislation in Washington, emerge.
“We could take out the top side if the president prematurely makes a move on the Fed, which they could target that easily by the end of the year. And if this bill gets passed, I mean, those are the two kinds of catalysts I see,” said Novogratz.
