Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, and more accommodative policies might not trigger a bull market.
• The historical correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s performance has been disrupted.
• Global liquidity is currently around $170 trillion and continues to rise.
• Accommodative monetary policies may not be the catalyst for a Bitcoin bull market.
• The current US administration is attempting to take economic control from the Federal Reserve.
• There is a concept of ‘peacetime Bitcoin’ and ‘wartime Bitcoin’ reflecting different economic conditions.
• US crypto policy is trending towards centralization, opposing the original decentralization ideals.
• Bitcoin’s importance will grow as the world becomes more fragmented and oppressive.
• Bitcoin’s original mission emphasizes censorship resistance and decentralization.
• Kevin Warsh is seen as a figure with the courage and expertise to challenge financial norms.
• The future of Bitcoin is tied to societal changes and the geopolitical climate.
• The evolving regulatory landscape in the US is moving towards centralization, impacting crypto’s future.

Guest intro

Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. He previously served as Head of Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Manager at Bitwise Asset Management. He holds a B.A. in Economics and International Relations from Stanford University and is a CFA charterholder.

Bitcoin and the bear market

• We are likely in a bear market for Bitcoin, and accommodative policies may not catalyze a bull market.

  — Jeff Park

• Accommodative policies may not be the catalyst for a bull market in Bitcoin.
• The bear market has persisted for quite some time, challenging the notion that monetary policy will boost Bitcoin.

• I think we’re in a bear market and I think we have been in a bear market for quite a bit.

  — Jeff Park

• Understanding the current economic environment is crucial for navigating the crypto markets.
• The bear market challenges the assumption that monetary policy will positively influence Bitcoin prices.

• Having more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst to help us go into a bull market.

  — Jeff Park

• The bear market requires a new perspective on how monetary policy affects Bitcoin.

Global liquidity and its impact

• The correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s performance has been broken.

  — Jeff Park

• Global liquidity is around $170 trillion and has been steadily increasing.

• I would say it has been going up pretty steadily in 2025… I think we are now around $170,000,000,000,000.

  — Jeff Park

• The broken correlation between liquidity and Bitcoin suggests a shift in market dynamics.

• The truth is that’s been broken for quite some time.

  — Jeff Park

• Understanding global liquidity trends is essential for analyzing market conditions.
• The increase in global liquidity provides a factual basis for market trend analysis.
• The shift in correlation could affect investment strategies in the crypto space.

US economic control and the Federal Reserve

• The current administration is attempting to wrest control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve.

  — Jeff Park

• The administration uses deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and attempts to weaken the US dollar.

• It does feel like the current administration in the United States is trying to wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve.

  — Jeff Park

• This shift impacts monetary policy and the broader economic landscape.
• Understanding the political and economic landscape is crucial for grasping these changes.
• The administration’s actions reflect a significant shift in economic control dynamics.
• The impact of these policies on the economy and crypto markets is profound.
• The relationship between government policy and central banking is evolving.

Peacetime Bitcoin vs. wartime Bitcoin

• There is a distinction between ‘peacetime Bitcoin’ and ‘wartime Bitcoin’ that reflects different economic conditions and policy influences.

  — Jeff Park

• Wartime Bitcoin suggests that monetary policy is not the driving factor for growth.

• Wartime means it’s actually not monetary policy that is driving the future outlook for how we’re thinking about growth.

  — Jeff Park

• This framework provides a unique perspective on Bitcoin’s value proposition.
• Understanding the geopolitical and economic climate is essential for this analysis.
• The concept highlights Bitcoin’s role in varying economic contexts.
• Peacetime vs. wartime Bitcoin reflects different policy influences on the asset.
• This distinction is crucial for analyzing Bitcoin’s potential in different scenarios.

Centralization trends in US crypto policy

• The trend in US crypto policy is moving towards centralization, which contrasts with the original ideals of decentralization in the crypto space.

  — Jeff Park

• This shift could impact the future development and adoption of crypto.

• If you really look hard at what’s been happening here in the US as well from a crypto policy perspective it’s moving towards a model of centralization.

  — Jeff Park

• Understanding the regulatory landscape is crucial for navigating the crypto industry.
• The trend towards centralization contrasts with the original decentralization ideals.
• This shift represents a significant change in the crypto industry’s trajectory.
• The impact of centralization on crypto’s future is a critical consideration.
• The evolving regulatory landscape poses challenges and opportunities for crypto.

Bitcoin’s future relevance

• Bitcoin will gain importance as the world becomes more fragmented and oppressive.

  — Jeff Park

• The geopolitical climate influences Bitcoin’s role as a financial asset.

• These are the energy that I think re drives the importance of Bitcoin.

  — Jeff Park

• Understanding societal changes is crucial for predicting Bitcoin’s future relevance.
• Bitcoin’s importance is tied to its ability to respond to societal fragmentation.
• The future of Bitcoin is linked to geopolitical and societal shifts.
• The relevance of Bitcoin is driven by its role in a fragmented world.
• This prediction highlights Bitcoin’s potential in response to global changes.

Bitcoin’s original mission

• The original mission of Bitcoin is about censorship resistance and decentralization, not just regulatory clarity.

  — Jeff Park

• Bitcoin’s foundational principles emphasize freedom and decentralization.

• It’s about censorship resistance, it is about decentralization and it’s about freedom money.

  — Jeff Park

• Understanding Bitcoin’s core values is crucial amidst evolving market structures.
• The original mission contrasts with current regulatory discussions.
• Bitcoin’s mission emphasizes its role as a tool for financial freedom.
• The focus on decentralization and censorship resistance remains central.
• This perspective highlights the enduring values of Bitcoin in the crypto space.

Kevin Warsh and financial innovation

• Kevin Warsh has the courage and expertise to challenge the status quo in financial systems.

  — Jeff Park

• Warsh’s potential impact on financial innovation and reform is significant.

• He really represents somebody who has great domain expertise about how things work.

  — Jeff Park

• Understanding Warsh’s role is crucial for anticipating changes in financial systems.
• Warsh’s expertise positions him as a key figure in financial reform.
• His ability to challenge norms is essential for future innovation.
• Warsh’s influence could shape the future of crypto and financial systems.
• This insight highlights the importance of expertise in driving financial change.