Key takeaways

• Bitcoin has the potential to enable billions to participate in capitalism rapidly.
• AI is driving a deflationary trend in the economy.
• By 2030, most S&P 500 companies could face disruption due to technological advancements.
• The rapid pace of AI development is outstripping the readiness of individuals and institutions.
• Public companies’ business models are becoming indefensible due to AI’s rise.
• A significant shift is occurring as investors move from code-based to physical assets.
• The SaaS market’s bottoming out may signal Bitcoin’s outperformance.
• AI models present substantial security risks by identifying code vulnerabilities.
• The housing market is unlikely to rebound soon, contributing to deflation.
• Negative market movements are expected soon due to mutual and hedge fund repositioning.
• AI cannot replace human context in understanding and communication.
• Data center limitations could hinder tech companies’ ability to monetize AI effectively.
• The largest portfolio positions are often software stocks due to index fund compositions.

Guest intro

Jordi Visser heads AI Macro Nexus Research for 22V Research. He is the founder and chief strategist of VisserLabs, a consulting firm launched in 2024 to help asset managers navigate AI and digital assets disruption. With over 30 years as a veteran macro investor, he previously served as President and CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.

The economic impact of AI

• AI is contributing to a deflationary economic environment. “The reality is we have a deflationary situation that’s happening and the reason is because AI is driving that deflation as we speak.” – Jordi Visser
• The housing market is unlikely to experience a bounce, which may exacerbate deflation. “Unless we’re gonna see a bounce in the housing market which I see zero chance of that happening.” – Jordi Visser
• The difference between truflation and core CPI is largely due to how shelter costs are calculated. “The difference between truflation and core CPI is pretty much all the shelter calculation.” – Jordi Visser
• AI is causing recursive self-improvement in models, leading to rapid market disruption. “Opus 4.6 came out last week… it’s five times more powerful than opus 4.5 which is what caused this whole disruption.” – Jordi Visser
• Public companies’ business models are becoming indefensible due to AI advancements. “No company now has a moat; their businesses are no longer defensible.” – Jordi Visser
• AI is accelerating faster than people and companies can adapt. “We are really past the point opus 4.5 to opus 4.6 is shocking to me… the fact that we’re there now should scare the hell out of everyone.” – Jordi Visser
• AI models can identify significant security vulnerabilities in code. “We had the model opus 4.6 go through our code… they found 500 places they could break into.” – Jordi Visser
• AI cannot replace human context or understanding in communication. “It cannot handle human context and it cannot understand what humans want to read.” – Jordi Visser

Investment strategies in an AI-driven world

• Investors are shifting from code-based assets to physical assets. “A community-based asset that is built on code… people are avoiding everything that’s built on code they’re moving it into physical things.” – Jordi Visser
• Bitcoin is likely to start outperforming once the SaaS market bottoms out. “My ultimate theme has been that eventually when software is deemed to be problematic… Bitcoin would start to outperform.” – Jordi Visser
• Bitcoin is unique as a scarce growth asset, unlike other commodities and industrials. “It’s the only growth asset that is scarce… commodities are not growth assets industrials are not growth assets for the now.” – Jordi Visser
• The largest positions in portfolios are often software stocks due to index compositions. “Your biggest positions are software stocks not because you chose them but because you’re in the S&P 500 or you’re in some kind of ETF that has mainly software in it.” – Jordi Visser
• AI’s rapid development poses challenges for traditional investment models. “I’m just more concerned about AI accelerating at a time when I still see people trying to buy software stocks.” – Jordi Visser
• Data center limitations could hinder tech companies’ ability to monetize AI. “The only way they can monetize this is actually to have the ability of letting all these AI agents run on their data centers but they don’t have the data centers to handle the flow and the volume.” – Jordi Visser
• Data center cancellations are a growing issue impacting tech companies. “In this country, we are getting data center cancellations every single day across the country.” – Jordi Visser
• The hyperscaler companies may face equity declines if they fail to generate expected revenues. “They’re spending $650,000,000,000 this year if they don’t get the revenues in then what happens is their equity has to go down.” – Jordi Visser

Market predictions and potential disruptions

• By 2030, most S&P 500 companies could be disrupted due to technological advancements. “I’ve been emphatic about the fact that by 2030 most of the S&P 500 companies are gonna be disrupted.” – Jordi Visser
• Negative market movements are likely soon due to mutual and hedge fund repositioning. “If anything bad is gonna happen it’s gonna happen in the next month or two and the reason I say that is because the condition of mutual funds and hedge funds in trying to reposition for this.” – Jordi Visser
• Bitcoin will rapidly enable billions to participate in capitalism. “There are 7,000,000,000 people on the planet who’ve never been able to partake in capitalism… it’s gonna happen so fast that individuals companies governments will not be able to move fast enough.” – Jordi Visser
• AI is accelerating at a time when people are still investing in software stocks, raising concerns. “I’m just more concerned about AI accelerating at a time when I still see people trying to buy software stocks.” – Jordi Visser
• There is something alarming with Opus 4.6 and the departure of a safety person from Anthropic. “If something goes on in the market you heard it from me that there’s something really alarming going on with opus 4.6 and the safety person leaving it anthropic and why this is a bigger story than it should be.” – Jordi Visser
• Google and other tech companies may struggle to monetize AI due to insufficient data center capacity. “The only way they can monetize this is actually to have the ability of letting all these AI agents run on their data centers but they don’t have the data centers to handle the flow and the volume.” – Jordi Visser
• AI models can identify significant security vulnerabilities in code, posing risks. “We had the model opus 4.6 go through our code… they found 500 places they could break into that is the power of AI agents.” – Jordi Visser
• The rapid advancement of AI is at a point where recursive self-improvement is happening sooner than expected. “We are really past the point opus 4.5 to opus 4.6 is shocking to me… the fact that we’re there now should scare the hell out of everyone because nobody’s ready for it.” – Jordi Visser