Polymarket users forecast 97% probability of 25 bps rate cut

Traders on the platform signal overwhelming confidence before the central bank’s key policy announcement.

Polymarket users are forecasting a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points today. The decision will come in under three hours.

The prediction market platform shows near-consensus expectations among users for the quarter-point rate reduction.

CME FedWatch data now indicate around a 90% probability of a rate reduction, leaving only just over 10% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Polymarket users forecast 97% probability of 25 bps rate cut

Traders on the platform signal overwhelming confidence before the central bank’s key policy announcement.

by Vivian Nguyen

Dec. 10, 2025

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Polymarket users are forecasting a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points today. The decision will come in under three hours.

The prediction market platform shows near-consensus expectations among users for the quarter-point rate reduction.

CME FedWatch data now indicate around a 90% probability of a rate reduction, leaving only just over 10% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.