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Polymarket predicts a 78% chance Solana ETFs will secure SEC approval this year

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Concerns over SEC leadership and regulatory challenges impact future of Solana ETFs.

Polymarket predicts a 76% chance that Solana ETFs will gain SEC approval this year

Key Takeaways

  • Polymarket bettors predict a 78% chance of SEC approval for Solana ETFs in 2025.
  • Five asset managers have filed applications for Solana ETFs but face challenges with SEC approval.

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Bettors on prediction market Polymarket are pricing in a 78% probability that the SEC will approve spot Solana ETFs in 2025, following the previous approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products.

Created just yesterday, the poll kicked off at 45% and has now surged above 70%.

Even with optimism surrounding potential regulatory approval this year, traders are uncertain that any decision will come before the second quarter. A separate Polymarket poll from November currently shows 57% odds for Solana ETF approval by July 31, down from 70% earlier this week.

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Five asset managers – Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital – have filed applications for Solana ETFs as of January 2.

The outcome will largely depend on the SEC’s stance regarding SOL. Currently, the legal status of SOL is uncertain due to ongoing scrutiny by the securities regulator. The SEC has classified SOL, along with several other crypto assets, as a security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.

The SEC has informed at least two prospective ETF issuers that it will reject their Solana ETF applications, according to FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett. Sources indicate the SEC is unlikely to approve new crypto ETFs “under the current administration.”

However, with the incoming Trump administration and anticipated changes in SEC leadership, ETF experts are optimistic about the future of ETFs tracking the world’s sixth-largest crypto asset.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects new altcoin ETFs in 2025, including products tracking Litecoin, Hedera, XRP, and Solana, and new leadership at the SEC is crucial for the approval of XRP and Solana ETFs.

Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, also predicts that spot Solana ETFs will receive approval this year.

On December 19, ETF manager Volatility Shares submitted filings for three ETFs focused on Solana futures, although such futures are not currently available on CFTC-regulated exchanges.

Balchunas and Geraci view these developments as positive signs for the future approval of Solana-based ETFs.

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