Polymarket hits $100 million in monthly trading volume amid US election fever

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The monthly trading volume for the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket surpassed $100 million for the first time since its inception. According to a Dune Analytics dashboard created by Richard Chen, general partner at 1Confirmation, Polymarket registered over $111 million in bets in June. This is a 77% growth from May.

Notably, the volume at Polymarket experienced a significant leap in 2024. The month with less trading activity was April, with nearly $37 million in monthly volume, which is still 240% above the month with the largest volume in 2023. Additionally, the number of monthly active traders in the prediction market reached 29,432 in June, showing a 116% growth.

Anastasija Plotnikova, CEO and co-founder of Fideum, ties this rising popularity to the US presidential elections and to the fact that both candidates expressed their positions on crypto as an asset and future regulatory approach, with one candidate leaning towards a strong pro-crypto stance. 

“The industry and individuals did notice that and are clearly expressing their preferences. Crypto users are very quick to react and express themselves on both X and platforms like Polymarket, clearly showing their alignments and sympathies with the candidates. This phenomenon can be also regarded as a political ‘echo chamber’ in each direction,” Plotnikova added.

Therefore, this dynamic behavior of the crypto community favors prediction market platforms such as Polymarket, especially as crypto became a “truly hot topic” in 2024, and continues to be one of the political and electoral agenda items, shared Fideum’s CEO. 

“The decentralized aspect of these platforms is especially important for this user type since it ensures transparency, accuracy, and reliability for the participants that expressed their opinion.”

At the time of writing, Trump shows a 63% chance of winning the election according to Polymarket users. However, Plotnikova highlights that this might not reflect actual voters’ sentiment.

“There is a noticeable bias from crypto-native users, as they are utilizing crypto-native platforms. While crypto is a hot topic in the financial industry, it is not a top priority for all voters when electing candidates. Again, we should avoid creating echo chambers where only agreeable opinions are seen and heard.”

Nevertheless, as crypto users are significantly represented among the younger voter base, trading volume, and current betting positions are reflective of this demographic’s interests, Fideum’s CEO concluded.

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