0x58bro profits $33.8M from altcoin shorts, holds $25M in BTC, ETH shorts

0x58bro has booked $33.87 million in profit from shorting altcoins and currently holds $25 million in open shorts on BTC and ETH, a bearish stance tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $78,000-$80,000 by April 15 trades at 3% YES.

## Market reaction

The Bitcoin $78,000-$80,000 by April 15 market has a flat term structure, with odds holding at 3%. Traders are pricing in very little chance of a near-term rally, consistent with 0x58bro’s bearish positioning. The Ethereum $2,900 by April 19 market is similarly depressed, with these large short positions weighing on confidence in a quick rebound.

## Why it matters

Trading volume for the Bitcoin April 15 market is thin: only $58 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. It takes just $352 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning even small trades can shift the odds. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 11:11 PM, which didn’t hold.

0x58bro’s trades matter because they come during high volatility driven by geopolitical tensions. The positions suggest continued caution even after a conditional ceasefire. A YES share at 3¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits the target, a 33.3x return. Collecting on that would require a rapid price surge within a single day.

## What to watch

Watch for movements from BlackRock and Fidelity on ETF inflows, and any statements from Jerome Powell on Federal Reserve policy. Either could be the kind of catalyst that shifts these odds.

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