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✓ 3016h Russia, Ukraine agree to three-day ceasefire with prisoner swap
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 3016h Russia, Ukraine agree to three-day ceasefire with prisoner swap
▲ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
100% (was 26%, ▲74¢ in 16h)
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions: 52% FLAT
YES ▲74¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by april 30, 2026
1 article
· 16h ago
100%
▲74¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 52% FLAT
✓ 3016h 
NO ▲8¢
Trump's visit to China
2 articles
· 22h ago
8%
▼8¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 94% FLAT
22h Trump to meet Xi in Beijing amid US-Iran tensions, cruise virus concerns downplayed
23h Trump to visit China by May 31 with tech CEOs, Boeing deal possible
NO ▲8¢
Marco rubio press briefing statements
1 article
· 22h ago
8%
▼8¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 16% FLAT
TW✓ 1222h Iran may control Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warns amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲7¢
Trump insults
1 article
· 20h ago
100%
▲7¢
20h Trump calls ABC reporter’s question ‘stupid’ amid Iran war tensions
YES ▲7¢
Control of house in 2026 midterm elections
1 article
· 1d ago
100%
▲7¢
⚡ Trump insults 92% FLAT
1d Trump demands charges against Jeffries for ‘maximum warfare’ rhetoric
NO ▲6¢
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 23h ago
28%
▼6¢
✓ 223h Iran nuclear sites attacked by US, Israel amid rising tensions
NO ▲6¢
2026 united kingdom local elections: party winner
1 article
· 23h ago
20%
▼6¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 26% FLAT
✓ 1123h Reform UK gains 400 seats in 2026 local elections, Labour loses 260
NO ▲3¢
US declaration of war on Iran
1 article
· 18h ago
33%
▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 36% FLAT
⚡ Trump's agreement on Iranian demands by may 32% FLAT
✓ 218h Trump pauses Project Freedom, signals shift to diplomacy with Iran
NO ▲2¢
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
3 articles
· 5h ago
42%
▼2¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 44% FLAT
5h Escalating tensions in Hormuz, Lebanon impact oil market outlook
✓ 913h US sanctions 10 for aiding Iran’s weapons sector amid rising tensions
22h Trump warns Iran of consequences as peace deal confidence wanes
YES ▲2¢
Next prime minister of denmark
1 article
· 11h ago
7%
▲2¢
✓ 311h Troels Lund Poulsen tasked with forming Danish government after Frederiksen’s failure
YES ▲2¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 14h ago
42%
▲2¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 25% FLAT
✓ 514h US and Iran may resume talks in Islamabad next week: WSJ
✓ 622h US blocks 70 tankers, impacting Iran oil exports worth $13B
YES ▲2¢
Bab el-mandeb strait closure
1 article
· 14h ago
6%
▲2¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
14h Mojtaba Khamenei injured in attack, raising Iran leadership change concerns
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil price predictions
3 articles
· 10h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 56% FLAT
✓ 210h Iran conflict drives global food prices to three-year high: UN
14h JPMorgan warns $5 gas likely as Iran war disrupts oil supply
15h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply amid tensions
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price in april
1 article
· 13h ago
99.9%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high predictions 2% FLAT
13h Bitcoin holds above $80,000 amid SEC support and geopolitical tensions
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
4 articles
· 14h ago
21%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 37% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 714h Trump prioritizes reopening Strait of Hormuz amid Iran conflict
✓ 615h Iran claims strikes on US destroyers in Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 518h Clashes reported between US, Iranian forces near Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 15h ago
20%
▲1¢
✓ 215h Labour faces leadership questions after local election losses
✓ 317h Keir Starmer faces leadership pressure after UK election losses
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
6 articles
· 16h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
16h China confirms attack on oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz amid regional tensions
✓ 718h US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement
✓ 320h Aramco and ADNOC resume oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
2 articles
· 17h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 38% FLAT
17h Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global jet fuel supply, Europe faces shortages
✓ 420h Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 20h ago
2%
▼1¢
20h US-Iran conflict impacts Fed rate cut prospects amid inflation concerns
YES ▲1¢
Israel withdraws from lebanon
1 article
· 22h ago
4%
▲1¢
✓ 222h Israel maintains military presence in Lebanon amid Hezbollah conflict
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 22h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 3% FLAT
✓ 822h US unemployment steady, Fed rate cut unlikely by June 2026
YES ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 1d ago
29%
▲1¢
1d Powell likely to remain Fed chair until term ends in 2026 amid Warsh transition
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 4h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 24h Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon cast doubt on June 2026 withdrawal plan
17h Iran launches military strikes on UAE, escalating regional tensions
✓ 420h Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa amid escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
2 articles
· 10h ago
42%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 42% FLAT
⚡ Trump's agreement on Iranian demands by may 40% FLAT
10h Trump warns of ‘Project Freedom Plus’ if Iran talks stall
✓ 313h Iran likens Strait of Hormuz control to nuclear weapon in strategic stance
Likely NO
New congressional maps in midterms
1 article
· 11h ago
78%
▼0¢
✓ 311h GOP pushes mid-decade redistricting in Southern states after Supreme Court ruling
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 17h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin future price predictions 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 9 100% FLAT
17h 24 major financial institutions integrate Bitcoin services, boosting adoption
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 19h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US obtains Iranian enriched uranium 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 17% FLAT
✓ 419h Iran refuses to concede on uranium, defying US demands amid stalled talks
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 20h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 2% FLAT
20h Iran to make Strait of Hormuz restrictions permanent amid US tensions
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 1d ago
24%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium surrender 42% FLAT
1d Iran war boosts profits for energy, banks, defense firms: BBC
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 1d ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran leadership change 32% FLAT
1d Operation Epic Fury targets Iran, Khamenei assassination raises leadership change odds