Polymarket trader 0xA2 books $917K as Democrats sweep the midterms

Democrats took control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 midterms, a result widely read as a crushing blow to President Donald Trump. One Polymarket trader saw it coming early, and the payday shows it.

A wallet identified as 0xA2 ranked as the most profitable trader on the prediction market platform over the past 24 hours, according to Polymarket’s daily leaderboard. The account is sitting on roughly $917,000 in profit. There is one catch: most of that money is still riding on a position that has not yet settled.

How one wallet turned a long shot into a leaderboard win

The core of 0xA2’s haul is a single bold bet. The trader put $609,644 on the outcome that Republicans would fail to win any of the Senate battleground states.

When the position was opened, the market priced that scenario at a 36% probability. By the time results approached, the odds had climbed to 87%.

That shift pushed the position’s estimated value to $1.48 million. The unrealized gains on it come to approximately $860,000.

Unrealized is the key word. Those gains only become real once the market resolves, and the deciding factor is Alaska.

Traders on the platform currently give Republicans a 14% chance of pulling off an upset in Alaska’s Senate race. If that happens, the “zero swing states” bet fails, and a big chunk of 0xA2’s paper profit goes with it.

The Texas trade that already paid out

Not all of 0xA2’s winnings are hostage to Alaska. The trader also locked in $106,115 in realized profit by correctly calling a Democratic victory in the Texas Senate race.

0xA2 was not the only wallet having a good night. The top 10 traders on Polymarket’s 24-hour leaderboard each made more than $170,000.

Why election night became Polymarket’s showcase

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market, which is why its top trader is known by a wallet address rather than a name. Positions and payouts move on-chain, so performance can be tracked publicly on leaderboards like the one that put 0xA2 at the top.

What it means for prediction markets and traders

The 0xA2 story is a neat illustration of how prediction market pricing actually works. A scenario the crowd once rated at roughly one in three ended up near 87%, and the trader who bought early captured almost all of that repricing.

There is also a risk management lesson buried in the numbers. 0xA2’s headline profit looks enormous, but the bulk of it hinges on a single unresolved race. Concentrated bets produce dramatic leaderboard moments.

The immediate thing to watch is Alaska. If Democrats or a non-Republican candidate hold on there, the swing-state market resolves in 0xA2’s favor and the paper gains turn into realized ones. If Republicans pull off the upset the market is pricing at 14%, the trader keeps the Texas profit but watches the largest piece of the night’s winnings evaporate.