Prediction Markets Archives - Crypto Briefing

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Iran military action by april 30 7% ▼6¢ Iranian demands Trump agreement 6% ▼5¢ US-Iran permanent peace deal 11% ▼4¢ GPT-5.5 release dates 98% ▲4¢ U.S. invasion of Iran 63% ▼3¢ Iran leadership status 63% ▼3¢ US-Iran ceasefire announcement 2% ▼2¢ US-Iran diplomatic meeting attendance 7% ▼2¢ Trump tariffs / trade war 78% ▼2¢ Trump insult prediction market 69% ▲2¢ Epstein client list release 7% ▼2¢ USD.AI FDV after launch 98% ▼1¢ Iranian demands Trump 63% ▼1¢ Trump's Iranian demands 3% ▼1¢ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 3% ▼1¢ Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran 5% ▼1¢ S&P 500 movement on april 13 82% ▲1¢ Fed rate decisions 0% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price targets 43% ▼0¢ US-Iran ceasefire 9% ▼0¢ Iranian regime fall 9% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price predictions for april 21 100% ▼0¢ Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal 1% ▼0¢ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 6% ▼0¢ Gold price predictions by end of june 100% ▼0¢ Trump public insults by april 2026 100% ▼0¢ Israel military action against Iran 100% ▼0¢ S&P 500 prediction for april 14 100% ▼0¢ Iran military action by april 30 7% ▼6¢ Iranian demands Trump agreement 6% ▼5¢ US-Iran permanent peace deal 11% ▼4¢ GPT-5.5 release dates 98% ▲4¢ U.S. invasion of Iran 63% ▼3¢ Iran leadership status 63% ▼3¢ US-Iran ceasefire announcement 2% ▼2¢ US-Iran diplomatic meeting attendance 7% ▼2¢ Trump tariffs / trade war 78% ▼2¢ Trump insult prediction market 69% ▲2¢ Epstein client list release 7% ▼2¢ USD.AI FDV after launch 98% ▼1¢ Iranian demands Trump 63% ▼1¢ Trump's Iranian demands 3% ▼1¢ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 3% ▼1¢ Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran 5% ▼1¢ S&P 500 movement on april 13 82% ▲1¢ Fed rate decisions 0% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price targets 43% ▼0¢ US-Iran ceasefire 9% ▼0¢ Iranian regime fall 9% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price predictions for april 21 100% ▼0¢ Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal 1% ▼0¢ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 6% ▼0¢ Gold price predictions by end of june 100% ▼0¢ Trump public insults by april 2026 100% ▼0¢ Israel military action against Iran 100% ▼0¢ S&P 500 prediction for april 14 100% ▼0¢

6h

US equips B-52 bombers with JASSM missiles amid Iran ceasefire talks

▼ Iran military action by april 30

7% (was 13%, ▼6¢ in 6h)

Read full analysis →

NO ▲6¢ Iran military action by april 30 1 article · 6h ago

7% ▼6¢

N▲6

US equips B-52 bombers with JASSM missiles amid Iran ceasefire talks

NO ▲5¢ Iranian demands Trump agreement 1 article · 6h ago

6% ▼5¢

⚡ Iran peace deals 12% FLAT

N▲5

Iran talks stall as VP Vance’s Pakistan trip paused

NO ▲4¢ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2 articles · 5h ago

11% ▼4¢

⚡ Iran's enriched uranium 26% FLAT

⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 43% FLAT

N▲4

Trump halts Iran strikes, cites internal fractures in Iranian government

Iran rejects pressure negotiations, US-Iran peace deal unlikely by deadline

YES ▲4¢ GPT-5.5 release dates 1 article · 5h ago

98% ▲4¢

⚡ GPT-5.5 release timing 96% FLAT

Y▲4

Florida AG investigates OpenAI over ChatGPT’s alleged role in 2025 shooting plot

NO ▲3¢ U.S. invasion of Iran 1 article · 5h ago

63% ▼3¢

N▲3

Trump denied nuclear codes access during Pentagon meeting, claims ex-CIA analyst

NO ▲3¢ Iran leadership status 1 article · 6h ago

63% ▼3¢

⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 3% FLAT

⚡ US-Iran peace deal 12% FLAT

N▲3

Israel escalates tensions with Iran, straining US relations

NO ▲2¢ US-Iran ceasefire announcement 1 article · 5h ago

2% ▼2¢

⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 82% FLAT

N▲2

Trump extends Iran blockade as ceasefire breach deadline looms

NO ▲2¢ Epstein client list release 1 article · 5h ago

7% ▼2¢

N▲2

Democracy Forward’s FOIA request heightens scrutiny on Kash Patel

YES ▲2¢ Trump insult prediction market 1 article · 5h ago

69% ▲2¢

Y▲2

Mandelson scandal threatens Starmer’s leadership as pressure mounts

NO ▲2¢ Trump tariffs / trade war 1 article · 5h ago

78% ▼2¢

N▲2

US confirms Trump tariffs on Mexico permanent, EU retaliation possible

NO ▲2¢ US-Iran diplomatic meeting attendance 1 article · 6h ago

7% ▼2¢

⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 30% FLAT

⚡ Who will meet with Iran by april 30 22% FLAT

N▲2

Iran ceasefire set to expire April 22, raising risk of military escalation

NO ▲1¢ Trump's Iranian demands 1 article · 5h ago

3% ▼1¢

⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 3% FLAT

N▲1

US Treasury imposes new sanctions on Iran weapon suppliers

YES ▲1¢ S&P 500 movement on april 13 1 article · 5h ago

82% ▲1¢

Y▲1

US Treasury yields rise as US-Iran tensions escalate

NO ▲1¢ Iranian demands Trump 1 article · 5h ago

63% ▼1¢

⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 12% FLAT

N▲1

US Vice President Vance cancels Pakistan trip amid US-Iran peace uncertainty

NO ▲1¢ Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran 1 article · 5h ago

5% ▼1¢

N▲1

Iran skips US talks in Pakistan, complicates ceasefire efforts

NO ▲1¢ USD.AI FDV after launch 1 article · 5h ago

98% ▼1¢

N▲1

$CHIP token launch coincides with crypto rally amid US-Iran ceasefire

NO ▲1¢ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 1 article · 6h ago

3% ▼1¢

⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 3% FLAT

N▲1

US recalls ambassador to Israel amid Iran nuclear tensions

Likely NO US-Iran ceasefire 14 articles Developing

9% ▼0¢

⚡ Iranian regime fall 1% FLAT

N↑

Rumors of coup attempt in Iran highlight factional divides in Tehran

Oil prices dip amid potential US-Iran ceasefire extension

White House claims victory in Operation Epic Fury, market skeptical of April 30 end

Strait of Hormuz blockade escalates US-Iran tensions, disrupts energy supply

Pakistan’s diplomatic push impacts US-Iran ceasefire odds as deadline nears

Military planners meet in London to discuss reopening Strait of Hormuz

Iran cancels talks in Pakistan, escalating US tensions

Pakistan thanks Trump for US-Iran ceasefire extension amid market caution

Trump extends Iran ceasefire, cites fractured Iranian government

US-Iran ceasefire odds slip as military operations continue

Iran receives US signals to end blockade, but key talks remain stalled

Iran open to talks but demands hinder ceasefire prospects by April 30

US pauses Iran talks with 10 days left before ceasefire deadline

Iran undecided on joining US peace talks, official tells BBC

Likely NO Bitcoin price targets 6 articles Developing

43% ▼0¢

Y↑

Goldman Sachs files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF amid market volatility

Strategy makes 3rd-largest BTC purchase with $1.1B acquisition

Bitcoin falls below $75,500 amid US-Iran tensions

Bitcoin exchange reserves hit lowest since 2017, institutional interest grows

North Korea’s Lazarus Group launders $290M in crypto via Ethereum, Bitcoin

UAE becomes sixth-largest sovereign Bitcoin holder with $900M investment

Likely NO Fed rate decisions 2 articles Developing

0% ▼0¢

Y↑

Kevin Warsh calls for regime change at Fed, eyes rate cuts

Warsh’s Senate testimony boosts US 10Y yields, dims Fed rate cut hopes

Likely NO Iranian regime fall 2 articles · 2h ago

9% ▼0¢

⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 16% FLAT

Y↑

Iran shifts to military-security governance amid rising instability risks

IRGC sidelines Iran’s president, takes control of state functions

Likely NO Gold price predictions by end of june 1 article · 5h ago

100% ▼0¢

N↑

Spot gold drops 3% amid Iran conflict and US dollar strength

Likely NO Trump public insults by april 2026 1 article · 5h ago

100% ▼0¢

⚡ Who will Trump publicly insult by april 30? 100% FLAT

Y↑

Tucker Carlson apologizes for Trump support, market expects Trump insult

Likely NO Israel military action against Iran 2 articles · 5h ago

100% ▼0¢

⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT

Y↑

IRGC showcases missiles in Tehran amid low odds of Israeli military action

Hezbollah attacks northern Israel, raising doubts over US-brokered ceasefire

Likely NO Bitcoin price predictions for april 21 1 article · 5h ago

100% ▼0¢

⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 6% FLAT

Y↑

Strategy gains $3.6B from Bitcoin as holdings surpass BlackRock

Likely NO Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal 1 article · 6h ago

1% ▼0¢

⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT

⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 82% FLAT

N↑

Iran calls US naval blockade “act of war,” escalating Persian Gulf tensions

Likely NO S&P 500 prediction for april 14 1 article · 6h ago

100% ▼0¢

N↑

Middle East tensions hit S&P 500 April 20 contract, drops YES

Likely NO Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 1 article · 6h ago

6% ▼0¢

Y↑

Macron pledges support for Lebanon in Israel talks, no French mediation