Altcoin season unlikely before 2025, says crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen
Bitcoin's dominance raises questions about the timing of the next altcoin rally ahead of Friday's employment report.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin's market dominance has reached 60%, suggesting altcoins may not rally until 2025.
- Altcoin rallies historically follow strong Bitcoin rallies, but a parabolic Bitcoin run is needed for this.
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Benjamin Cowen, predicts that a full-fledged altcoin season may not materialize until 2025, attributing this to the current strength in Bitcoin and prevailing market dynamics, in his latest YouTube video.
“Altcoins have been steadily losing ground to Bitcoin, and I believe altcoins won’t have a sustained season until 2025,” Cowen said. “Historically, alt seasons follow a strong Bitcoin rally, so unless Bitcoin experiences a parabolic run, we might not see an alt season.”
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s dominance, which recently hit 60%, is likely to keep altcoins under pressure for the foreseeable future, with many altcoin pairs reaching new lows against Bitcoin.
Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s recent price behavior aligns with its historical cyclical patterns, which typically favor Bitcoin over altcoins, especially in halving years.
He pointed to Bitcoin’s potential for further gains if it sustains a close above $70,000 on the weekly chart.
Conversely, should Bitcoin fall below that level, he suggested the “monetary policy view” would then prevail, signaling potential softness in both Bitcoin and altcoins alike.
While discussing altcoin pairs, Cowen emphasized their ongoing struggle, noting that altcoins typically lag behind Bitcoin during periods of increased dominance.
Until Bitcoin experiences a significant rally and investors begin taking profits, Cowen sees little catalyst for a sustained altcoin surge.
Ultimately, Cowen suggests that Bitcoin’s path for the rest of 2024 hinges on its ability to hold above $70,000, with upcoming labor market data poised to play a decisive role.
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