Antalya summit pushes for diplomacy in Hormuz crisis, military action odds drop

The Antalya summit concluded with a push for diplomacy to resolve the Hormuz crisis. Military action against Iran by April 30, 2026, now sits at 8% YES, down from 16% a week ago.

Market reaction

Turkey led the summit to mediate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for military action against Iran by April 30 have halved in a week. The April 15 market remains at 1.7% YES, with little time left for escalation. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 is at 100% YES.

Why it matters

The summit’s explicit focus on regional de-escalation and cooperation points toward a diplomatic resolution rather than a military one. A 150-country gathering organized specifically around the Hormuz crisis is a concrete signal that multilateral pressure favors negotiation.

What to watch

Actual USDC volume in these markets remains modest. The April 30 market’s depth shows it takes only $513 to move the odds 5 points, meaning a single large trade could swing the price. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point drop, showing limited current trading interest.

Watch for announcements from Turkey or GCC states on specific summit outcomes. Any confirmation of diplomatic initiatives or reductions in Iranian provocations could shift these probabilities. At 8¢, a YES share for military action by April 30 pays $1, a 12.5x return. That bet looks speculative unless Iran escalates further.

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