Apple iPhone sales drop 19% in China as Huawei eats into market share, UBS estimates
Apple's slice of the Chinese smartphone market shrank from 16% to roughly 11% in May, according to UBS analysis of government data
Apple just had a rough month in the world’s largest smartphone market. UBS estimates that iPhone sell-in figures for China dropped approximately 19% year-over-year in May, based on data from China’s CAICT, the government body that tracks telecom equipment registrations.
The decline is notable not just for its size, but for its timing. Apple was supposed to have an easier comparison this May. Instead, the company’s market share of smartphone shipments in China fell from 16% to roughly 11% over the same period.
From growth spurt to gut punch
Earlier in 2026, Apple was riding a genuine wave of momentum in China. Counterpoint Research reported a 20% increase in iPhone shipments during Q1 2026. Shipments in the first nine weeks of the year climbed 23%.
UBS, for its part, maintained a Neutral rating on Apple stock with a price target of $296.
The Huawei factor
Huawei has been clawing back market share aggressively, positioning itself as a direct competitor to Apple in the premium smartphone segment. Supply chain disruptions and rising memory chip costs have added pressure across the smartphone industry.
What this means for investors
Apple went from 23% growth in the first nine weeks of 2026 to a 19% decline in May. The market share decline from 16% to 11% reflects competitive positioning, and a five-point decline suggests Apple is losing ground to rivals in the Chinese market.
UBS’s Neutral stance and $296 price target reflect a market that’s pricing in these risks. If June and July show a rebound similar to the Q1 surge, May will look like a blip. If the decline persists, investors will need to recalibrate their expectations for Apple’s growth trajectory in its second-largest market.