Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open despite earlier closure threats

Bab el-Mandeb Strait stays open despite earlier threats, with the chance of closure by April 30 dropping to 1.2%, down from 6% yesterday.

Market reaction

The April 30 market is at 1.2% YES, a sharp drop from 6% just a day ago. The May 31 contract is at 16.0% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The 15-point gap between these two dates suggests traders expect any potential closure to come after April, not before.

Trading volume at $11,833 USDC over the past 24 hours indicates moderate interest. Only $451 is needed to move the April 30 odds by five points, so this market is thin and vulnerable to larger trades. A notable move occurred at 5:39 PM with a 2-point spike as odds briefly increased from 6% to 7%.

Why it matters

The strait staying open and the absence of escalation point to stability in the near term. The source for the current sentiment is a Tier 3 social media post, not an official announcement, so the signal is weak. But real-world actions suggest a pullback from brinkmanship. At 1.2¢, buying YES on closure by April 30 requires believing in a sudden, dramatic escalation within six days. The likelier path runs through diplomatic channels and de-escalation.

What to watch

Official statements from Houthi leadership or Iran, and any attacks or disruptions reported by shipping companies like Maersk. Either could push odds higher if tensions return.

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