Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set a bold fiscal target when he unveiled his “3-3-3” plan: cut the federal deficit to 3% of GDP by the time President Trump’s term ends in 2028.

The plan vs. reality

Bessent’s “3-3-3” framework targets three goals pegged to the number three: reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP, grow the economy at 3% annually, and boost domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day.

The US deficit sat at roughly 6.4% to 6.5% of GDP in 2024. Getting from there to 3% would require cutting the deficit roughly in half in about four years.

Bessent has pointed to recent progress as evidence the plan is working. The deficit-to-GDP ratio has reportedly declined from 6.5% to 5.9%.

The reconciliation bill problem

The House reconciliation bill currently making its way through the legislative process is projected to increase deficits to approximately 7% of GDP by fiscal year 2027, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The Center for American Progress has similarly warned that current legislative actions make the 3% target increasingly difficult to achieve without significant spending cuts or tax increases that aren’t currently on the table.

Bessent has cited potential recoveries from fraud and waste of up to $500 billion annually as a key fiscal strategy.

What Bessent is banking on

The Treasury Secretary’s argument rests on a combination of factors: economic growth generating higher tax revenues, energy production boosting the economy, and aggressive cost-cutting across the federal government reducing outlays.

If the economy genuinely hits a sustained 3% annual growth rate, the math gets easier. Higher GDP means a bigger denominator in the deficit-to-GDP ratio, which mechanically brings the percentage down even without dramatic spending cuts.

The oil production target would require increasing output by 3 million barrels per day, representing a substantial expansion of domestic energy capacity.