Bitcoin active addresses hit lowest since 2018 as short-term traders exit

Active Bitcoin addresses have dropped to their lowest point since 2018, a retreat by short-term traders. Bitcoin’s odds of reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 sit at 34.5% YES, down from 36% yesterday.

The decrease in active addresses suggests retail and short-term speculative activity is fading. Combined with broader risk aversion from US-Iran geopolitical tensions, this has weighed on Bitcoin prices. The odds for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year’s end remain at 9.5% YES.

The 8-year low in active addresses points to more than a pause in speculative trading; it suggests a shift towards institutional accumulation. Institutional players remain engaged despite low volatility, which separates this period from previous bearish cycles where retail panic often drove price action.

Daily trading on the Bitcoin price target markets shows $3,490 in USDC traded across both the $100,000 and $150,000 thresholds. It takes $2,908 to move the $100,000 market by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity that can be pushed by a single large trade. The largest recent price move was a 1-point spike at 2:15 AM.

US-Iran tensions add to bearish sentiment for Bitcoin hitting $100,000. At 34.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches this target by December 31, 2026, a 2.90x return. That bet requires belief in a meaningful turnaround in retail engagement or new institutional catalysts.

Watch for geopolitical developments, particularly any easing of US-Iran tensions, and announcements from institutional actors like BlackRock or Fidelity. Both could shift Bitcoin’s trajectory.

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