Bitcoin has repeatedly erased Hormuz “reopening” rallies, and the odds on WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sit at 0.1% YES, unchanged from a week ago.

The market for the US blockade of Hormuz being lifted by May 31 dropped sharply, now at 56% YES, down from 72% just a day ago. The Strait of Hormuz traffic market prices normal traffic resuming by May 15 at only 15.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.

The falling odds reflect skepticism about any sustained easing of tensions. Bitcoin’s reversals show traders don’t trust transient ceasefire announcements. The flat, near-zero WTI $160 odds suggest the market expects continued supply constraints rather than a price spike.

Daily USDC volume tells the story: $506 for WTI Crude, $95,253 for the Hormuz blockade, and $36,459 for Hormuz traffic. Moving the blockade market 5 points requires $8,995, which means these are thick books where odds shifts represent real capital commitment.

The pattern in Bitcoin’s reaction, combined with the 16-point drop in blockade odds over 24 hours, points to a genuine shift in trader sentiment rather than noise. A YES share on the blockade being lifted at 56¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.79x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent within 37 days.

Watch for announcements from Trump, CENTCOM, or reports of resumed diplomatic talks. An official statement on a ceasefire or blockade lifting could move these markets fast.

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