Bitcoin ETFs attract $240M despite crypto market downturn

Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $240 million and Ethereum ETFs attracted $64.9 million despite a broader crypto market downturn. On Polymarket, the Bitcoin $100,000 by December 2026 market sits at 37.5% YES, while the Bitcoin $150,000 market is at 9.5% YES.

The $100,000 market climbed from 30% to 37.5% YES over the past week. The $150,000 market dipped slightly from 10% to 9.5% in the last day. The ETF inflow numbers coincide with this upward move in the $100,000 contract, though geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-Iran conflict, continue to weigh on crypto prices.

Trading activity in these markets is thin. Daily face value is $4,867 for the $100,000 market and $4,325 for the $150,000 market, but actual USDC traded is only $1,776 and $411 per day, respectively. Moving the $100,000 contract 5 percentage points requires $10,824 in the order book, which points to a relatively balanced but illiquid market. The geopolitical drag on crypto prices persists even as ETF money flows in.

ETF inflows may be establishing a price floor, but volatility remains high. At 38% YES, a Bitcoin share paying $1 if it hits $100,000 offers a 2.63x return. Geopolitical and regulatory risks cut both ways, and the low daily volume means positions can be hard to exit quickly.

Watch for upcoming ETF inflow reports, potential SEC actions, and geopolitical developments. Larger-than-expected inflow announcements from Fidelity or BlackRock could move these contracts meaningfully.

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