Bitcoin, Ethereum open interest up $2B each after US-Iran ceasefire

Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest surged by nearly $2 billion each following a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Bitcoin’s price on April 16 sits at 98.4% YES, with reduced geopolitical risk driving the move.

Traders have ramped up leveraged positions, with Bitcoin open interest climbing from $48 billion to $51.45 billion. The ceasefire eased war concerns and sent Bitcoin prices to $72,700. The Bitcoin price on April 16 market holds at 98.4% YES with a two-day countdown. The term structure remains flat, meaning traders see little additional news impact before expiry.

Ethereum open interest also jumped after the ceasefire. The Ethereum price prediction for April market saw a boost, though exact odds remain undisclosed. The market reaction shows confidence in Ethereum reaching $2,900 within the timeframe.

Trading volumes tell the story more precisely. Actual USDC committed is $25,002 across Bitcoin markets, and it takes $73,900 to move odds by 5 points, meaning serious capital backs these positions. The largest move was a 3-point spike, showing some restraint among traders.

At 98¢ for a YES share, traders see almost no downside risk. A $1 payout on a 98¢ bet prices in near certainty, confirming the geopolitical signal in crypto pricing. But for long-term targets like $100,000 by December 31, odds sit at 38% YES, meaning broader confidence is considerably weaker.

What to watch: Fresh developments in US-Iran diplomacy and Jerome Powell’s upcoming statements, particularly any hints at monetary policy shifts tied to reduced global tensions.

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