Bitcoin miners offloaded a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing their entire sell-off for 2025, as hashprice hovers around $33/PH/s. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by March 31, 2026, sits at 3% YES.
Market reaction
This sell-off is putting downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in April. The market for Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by June 30 sits at 3.4% YES, up slightly from 3% a week ago. The 9.5% YES odds for September 30 are up from 6% a week ago. December 31 odds have climbed to 16.5% YES, up from 12%. The biggest jump between September 30 and December 31 suggests traders expect a catalyst later in the year.
Why it matters
The miner sell-off has left Bitcoin’s April price sub-markets largely unchanged, with most consistently showing 100% YES due to their proximity to resolution dates. But the increased supply makes a dip toward $60,000 in April more plausible. Combined daily face value volume across these markets is $322,918, with actual USDC traded at $305,899.
What to watch
At current odds, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30 at 3¢ pays $1, a 33x return if the market rebounds. With miners still under profitability pressure, the odds stay low without a clear catalyst. Federal Reserve policy announcements, major corporate adoption news, regulatory changes, or statements from figures like Michael Saylor or Jerome Powell could shift sentiment.
