Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook Favors Bulls as Stimulus Talks Resume

The Analyst Team

Nov. 20, 2020

BTC technical and on-chain metrics continue to paint a bullish price picture.

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Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is holding above $18,000 as traders await news about the next U.S. stimulus package.
On-chain data analysis shows that long-term holders are still bullish.
Technical analysis shows that BTC has strong support from just above $17,200.

An increase in short-term bullish BTC momentum has been underway since news broke that U.S. stimulus talks are back on the table. The news comes as Bitcoin is now anchoring above the psychological $18,000 level.

Again, bulls are testing the yearly high after the bellwether cryptocurrency found strong technical support around the $17,205 level earlier this week.

Technical analysis shows more room for further price appreciation if bulls can finally surpass this week’s high of $18,488.

The daily chart shows that BTC may easily be drawn towards $19,500, and ultimately an all-time high if the $18,488 level is broken. Typically, trend traders will look for the market to set new higher highs to confirm an ongoing bullish trend.

However, failure to break past the $18,488 level could result in another pullback towards the $17,200 area. If this area is reached, the Williams Alligator indicator on the daily time frame offers dynamic support from its five- and eight-day moving averages, around $16,500 and $16,000, respectively.

The weekly time frame suggests that a break under the $16,000 level could cause BTC to undergo a major retrace towards $13,800, and possibly even the $13,000 area.

On-chain data from crypto behavioral platform Santiment paints a bullish price picture and shows that balances on exchanges continue to diminish as coins are moving out of exchange wallets and into holders’ wallets.

This depreciating trend has been in place since Oct. 21. It has been opposed to the rising prices of BTC as buying pressure continues to push prices higher due to decreasing supply. The metric also suggests that long-term traders may continue to hold on to their coins until whales move back to exchanges.

However, it remains to be seen if long-term investors or holders will take partial profits above or as close to $20,000 as possible over the coming days and weeks.

Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges — Balances on Exchanges by Santiment

Data analysis from Santiment also shows that from Nov. 1, Bitcoin addresses holding 100.000 to 1,000,000 coins are neither selling nor accumulating.

However, both addresses with 10,000-100,000 coins and 1,000-10,000 coins have been actively accumulating.

BTC Holders Distribution Combined Balance. Red (1,000-10,000 coins) Purple (10,000-100,000 coins) Brown (100,000-1,000,000 coins) by Santiment

Traders should expect high volatility in the coming days as price trades close to Bitcoin’s all-time high. This could be a defining moment for the crypto market as whales decide whether to HODL or liquidate some of their positions.

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