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Bitcoin has reclaimed the $76K mark for the second time today, with prediction markets for Bitcoin’s April price sitting at or near 100% YES. The move comes as markets digest President Trump’s order to close the Strait of Hormuz, which heightened tensions with Iran, and Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a geopolitical hedge rather than a pure risk asset.
Market reaction
Sub-markets for April 15 and April 19 remain at or near 100% YES, showing strong confidence that Bitcoin holds current levels. The rally follows earlier declines to $65K-$70K during initial conflict escalations; recent de-escalation signs have helped stabilize and push the price back up. USDC volume in these markets hit $305,899 in the last 24 hours, and order book depth shows it takes $32,199 to move the price by five points, indicating decent liquidity and real trader commitment.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s quick recovery from war-driven selloffs points to a different buyer profile than previous cycles. Institutional accumulation and ETF inflows are supporting these price levels, not just short squeezes and liquidations (though those play a part). A YES share priced for $60K dips, now looking unlikely to resolve, would pay out $1 if it does, a steep gamble given where Bitcoin currently trades.
What to watch
Further developments in US-Iran relations are the most obvious catalyst. Jerome Powell’s next Federal Reserve commentary or any significant ETF news could also move these markets in either direction.
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