- Bitcoin is neutral in the short-term, with the number one cryptocurrency at a critical juncture
- The Medium-term outlook for the BTC / USD pair remains bearish while trading below the $5,100 level
- The daily time frame chart shows major technical support, at $3,460
Bitcoin / USD Short-term price analysis
Bitcoin is neutral over the short-term horizon, with the BTC / USD pair falling back towards its key 200-period moving average on the four-hour time frame.
If BTC / USD sellers force the cryptocurrency below its 200-period moving average, the number one crypto will turn short-term bearish and could start to test towards the key trendline support, at $3,500.
The downsloping trendline on the four-hour time frame represents the top of a descending price channel, which the BTC / USD pair had been trapped inside for nearly two months.
The four-hour chart also shows that if the $3,500 level is broken, the BTC / USD pair has little in the way of technical support until the $3,200 level.
Traders should continue to monitor the descending price channel on the four-hour time as a break back inside the channel will signify a major bearish shift for the cryptocurrency over the short-term.
The MACD indicator on the four-hour time frame is currently conflicted, with the MACD histogram attempting to correct higher while the signal line still shows a bearish crossover underway.
The Stochastic indicator on the mentioned time frame remains bearish and is moving close to overbought territory.
Bitcoin / USD Medium-term price analysis
Bitcoin is bearish over the medium-term, with bulls recently failing to break above the well-defined descending triangle pattern on the daily time frame and also the BTC / USD pair’s trend defining 200-day moving average.
Selling momentum has been gathering pace since the start of the trading week, with price edging closer to the February 13th trading low, at $3,625.
The bottom of the descending triangle pattern on the daily time frame is currently found at $3,460 level, with the $3,200 level offering the strongest form of technical support below.
The upper trendline of the pattern is located at the $4,400 level, while the pair’s 200-day moving average is found at the $5,100 level.
Traders should watch for daily price closes under trendline support as it may signal a stronger bearish move in the BTC / USD pair.
Aside from the large descending triangle pattern, daily price closes under the BTC / USD pair’s current 2018 trading low should be watched closely.
The MACD indicator is slightly bearish on the daily time frame, although a strong sell signal has yet to be generated.
The Stochastic indicator is bearish on the daily time frame and is starting to approach oversold conditions.
Bitcoin is currently testing key support in the short-term, with BTC / USD pair at risk of deeper losses below its 200-period moving average. If short-term bulls manage to defend the $3,800 level, the BTC / USD could rebound towards the upper end of the triangle pattern, at $4,400.
If selling pressure continue, we are likely to see a major test of technical support around the $3,460 level, which is the bottom of the descending triangle pattern on the daily time frame channel.
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