Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance fall below $3B, lowest since June 2025

Whale inflows to Binance dipped below $3 billion, the lowest since June 2025. The market on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 34.5% YES, up from 30% a week ago.

The drop in whale activity coincides with long-term holders ramping up accumulation. The $100,000 market ticked higher in response. The $150,000 market is more skeptical, steadying at 9.5% YES after slipping from 10% last week. Both markets showed modest movement, with a 1-point spike in the $150,000 odds at 1:38 PM.

Volume is light: $2,613 USDC traded in the $100,000 market and $877 in the $150,000 market. It takes $2,908 to move the $100,000 market 5 percentage points, a thin order book that one large trade could sway. The largest price move was a 1-point spike, which shows how fragile pricing is at these volumes.

The shift from whale-driven flows to long-term holder accumulation could reduce near-term selling pressure. At 34.5¢, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 pays $1 if it hits the target, a 2.9x return. For this bet to work, you’d need sustained institutional buying, favorable regulatory changes, or a dovish Federal Reserve pivot.

Watch for institutional announcements from BlackRock and Fidelity, or regulatory shifts from the SEC. These are the most likely catalysts that could push Bitcoin toward $100,000.

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