Bitwise filed an updated S-1 for a Hyperliquid ETF, and the market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, now sits at 37.5% YES, up from 30% a week ago.

Market reaction

Bitwise’s push to launch a HYPE token ETF signals growing institutional interest and possible regulatory approval. Traders have bid up the $100,000 Bitcoin target accordingly. The $150,000 target is less optimistic at 9.5% YES, slightly down from 10% just 24 hours ago.

Why it matters

Bitwise’s filing is part of a competitive scramble among asset managers to secure approval for cryptocurrency-linked ETFs. Approval could bring more liquidity and institutional capital into Bitcoin markets. The $100,000 sub-market’s rise suggests traders are pricing in regulatory tailwinds.

What to watch

Daily USDC trading volume is $2,187, with $10,824 required to move the $100,000 target market odds by five percentage points, a reasonably thick order book. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was a four-point jump, showing moderate reactivity to the news.

A YES share at 38¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000 by year-end 2026, a 2.63x return. That bet requires expecting both regulatory approval and sustained institutional buying.

Watch for the SEC’s response to Bitwise’s filing and any statements from other major asset managers. These will directly affect market sentiment and pricing on this contract.

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