The December 2024 paper models risk for a hypothetical portfolio, not a blanket recommendation.
A December 2024 analysis from BlackRock Investment Institute placed a 1% to 2% Bitcoin allocation in a conditional risk-budgeting framework for multi-asset portfolios. The firm said that range could be reasonable for institutional investors with sufficient governance and risk tolerance who believe Bitcoin will gain wider adoption. It did not recommend that every investor buy Bitcoin.
How BlackRock sized the risk
Its example used a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, with weekly-return data from May 2012 through July 2024. BlackRock estimated that 1% Bitcoin contributed 2% of portfolio risk and 2% Bitcoin contributed 5%. The average Magnificent 7 stock contributed about 4% at the index weights used in the study. These are model estimates, not promised returns.
BlackRock said allocations above 2% would raise portfolio risk disproportionately because Bitcoin is volatile and its correlation with other assets can change. Its research also warned of sharp losses and the possibility that wider adoption does not occur.
What the paper does not say
The paper’s opinions are dated December 2024. It does not document a June 2026 reiteration, forecast purchases by BlackRock clients, or establish a current fund asset total. The 1% to 2% range is conditional analysis, not personal investment advice.
