Canada and the United States wrapped up a lengthy bilateral meeting at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, agreeing to keep talking about the future of their trade relationship. The core issue: whether the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade deal that governs over 70% of Canadian exports to the US, will survive its upcoming review.

The two sides described the talks as productive, with a 30-day window now set for further negotiations. That timeline puts the next major checkpoint right around July 1, which happens to be the USMCA’s critical review deadline.

What’s actually at stake

The USMCA replaced NAFTA in 2020 and includes a built-in six-year review process, which is now entering its most consequential phase.

Canada has formally requested a 16-year renewal, a move that would provide long-term certainty for businesses on both sides of the border.

US tariffs on steel and aluminum doubled to 50% in early June 2026, injecting real tension into what Canadian officials have tried to frame as a respectful dialogue.

Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc described the negotiations as productive. Ambassador Mark Wiseman echoed that sentiment, emphasizing that neither side felt the pressure of an immediate deadline, even as the July 1 review date inches closer.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump both acknowledged progress during the summit. But the G7 concluded without any significant breakthroughs on the trade front.

The bigger picture for North American trade

With more than 70% of Canadian exports flowing south under this agreement, any disruption would send shockwaves through the Canadian economy. American manufacturers rely heavily on Canadian raw materials, components, and energy imports to keep their own operations running.

The doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has already raised concerns in Ottawa that the USMCA might not survive its review intact. Canadian officials have responded by quietly diversifying trade partnerships with other nations, a hedge against the possibility that the North American framework weakens.

What this means for investors

A successful renewal, particularly the 16-year extension Canada is pushing for, would remove a major source of uncertainty from North American markets.

For crypto markets specifically, these trade discussions offer little direct signal. The G7 negotiations did not touch on digital assets, crypto tokens, or any related financial technology topics.

The July 1 deadline is the next date to circle. If the 30-day window produces a framework agreement, expect a relief rally in Canadian equities and a strengthening of the Canadian dollar.