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A tweet from @zerohedge shows the U.S. and Iran remain at odds, dropping the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Traders see no resolution soon. The April 7 market closes in 4 days, with new strikes and hardline rhetoric suggesting no ceasefire. April 15 odds fell to 6.5% YES, down from 22% a week ago, as traders anticipate a mid-month catalyst.
The April 30 odds dropped to 17.5% YES. Markets expect a resolution after April, with May 31 at 36.5% YES and June 30 at 51.5% YES. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, suggesting a key event in that period.
Daily trading volume is $430,773 in USDC, with $22,948 on April 7 alone. The order book depth of $12,367 to move April 7 odds by 5 points shows volatility risk. A 2-point spike in April 30 odds indicates brief bullish sentiment.
The lack of diplomatic progress suggests a bleak short-term outlook. The market’s reaction to @zerohedge’s tweet shows pessimism. At 1.1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if a ceasefire happens, a risk for those betting on a sudden change in four days.
Watch for shifts in rhetoric from Trump, who set an April 6 deadline for action on Iranian energy. Statements from CENTCOM or mediation by Oman or Qatar could affect market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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