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The Iran conflict intensifies with escalating missile attacks across the Middle East. Odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.8% YES, from 8% just 24 hours ago.
The market for a ceasefire by April 7 has seen a notable drop, reflecting heightened military activity and stalled negotiations. Odds for April 15 and April 30 ceasefires have also decreased, sitting at 8.5% and 23.5% YES, respectively. Traders are skeptical about near-term peace amid the current escalation.
Trading volume shows significant activity, with $535,930 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours across these markets. It takes $25,832 to move the April 7 odds by 5 points, indicating a robust order book. The largest price move was a 1-point drop, suggesting traders are holding positions despite the news.
This escalation acts as a bearish force on ceasefire odds, as increased missile strikes and aggressive rhetoric from the Trump administration signal further military involvement. A YES share for April 30 pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs by then, pricing in at 23.5¢ — a 4.25x potential return. Significant diplomatic efforts or concessions are needed to justify this bet, which currently seem unlikely.
Watch for updates from CENTCOM or shifts in US diplomatic language, especially from key figures like Secretary Rubio or Secretary Hegseth. These could influence market sentiment if they suggest a move towards de-escalation.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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