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U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted regime sites in northwestern Iran, while Iran threatened a UAE data center. The April 7 ceasefire odds dropped to 1.8% YES from 8% yesterday.
The escalation hit the markets hard. The April 7 ceasefire market is now at 1.8% YES, showing skepticism about a resolution soon. The April 15 market fell to 8.5% from 18%, and the April 30 market dropped to 23.5% from 40%, indicating a major shift in expectations.
Trading volume hit $535,634 in USDC over the past 24 hours, reflecting serious concern over the conflict. With $25,858 needed to shift the April 7 odds by 5 points, the market depth suggests significant trades, not just minor bets. The largest price move was a 1-point drop at 1:12 AM, indicating a steady sell-off.
The escalation risks further destabilizing the region and reduces ceasefire chances. Iran’s threat to the UAE data center could widen the conflict. A YES share for the April 7 ceasefire trades at 2¢, offering a 50x return if a ceasefire is declared, but this would require a major diplomatic breakthrough soon.
Watch for CENTCOM statements on U.S. military actions and any diplomatic moves from Oman or Qatar. Sudden rhetoric changes or confirmed back-channel meetings could signal market shifts.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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