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Israel’s missile defenses stopped most Iranian missiles, but Iran continues sporadic attacks. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.8% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
Operation Epic Fury, a US-Israel effort targeting Iranian capabilities, has weakened Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles. Despite this, Iran launched missiles at Israel on April 2, showing its ongoing, though diminished, ability to retaliate. The ceasefire market for April 7 is now at 1.8% YES, indicating traders’ doubts about a quick end to hostilities. Odds for April 15 are at 8.5% YES, and April 30 at 23.5% YES.
The most significant change is in the May 31 market, which fell from 56% to 45.5% YES in the last 24 hours. This suggests traders expect a prolonged conflict, with potential developments between late April and May. The 22-point increase from April 30 to May 31 reflects expectations of major events during that time.
USDC trading volume is at $535,930 daily, with the April 7 market needing $25,832 to shift the price by five points, indicating strong order book depth. The largest single price move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point drop, showing cautious trading amid ongoing military actions.
Traders face a fluid situation with a bearish outlook on a near-term ceasefire. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire is priced at 2¢, offering a 50x return if it resolves. However, given current military operations, a ceasefire within five days seems unlikely. The Iranian regime remains pressured but resilient, with the regime fall market showing increased odds of instability.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM and any diplomatic moves involving Oman and Qatar for signs of negotiation. Also, monitor any changes in language from US officials, particularly Trump or Secretary of State Rubio, for hints at a diplomatic breakthrough.
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