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Civilians and tribesmen are reportedly heading toward conflict zones between US forces and the IRGC in Iran. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
The market reaction has been immediate. The April 7 ceasefire market is now at 1% YES. The April 15 market dropped to 6% YES from 22% a week ago. Traders are responding to reports of increased airstrikes and civilian involvement, indicating worsening hostilities. The April 30 market reflects similar pessimism, now at 17.5% YES, down from 40% last week. The largest odds change is between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders foresee major developments soon.
Trading volume for these markets is at $3.76M, with $430,773 in USDC traded. Moving the April 7 market 5 percentage points would require $12,367, showing that even small trades can shift odds significantly. The biggest single move was a 2-point rise in the April 30 market, likely due to ongoing military actions.
For traders, the escalating conflict signals a low chance of a ceasefire. With US airstrikes intensifying and the IRGC advising civilians to evacuate, market sentiment is pessimistic. A YES share at 1¢ for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, offering a 100x return, but this outcome seems increasingly unlikely.
Watch for any changes in rhetoric from figures like Trump or IRGC leaders. Also, monitor potential diplomatic efforts from Oman or Qatar, which could indicate a shift. Until then, expect low odds for a near-term ceasefire.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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