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US-Iran negotiations continue, with Trump extending a pause on strikes to support talks. However, the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are just 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Traders doubt diplomatic progress. The April 7 ceasefire odds fell from 12% to 1% in the past week, showing skepticism. April 15 odds dropped to 6% from 22%, and April 30 stands at 17.5%, down from 40%.
The market anticipates a potential catalyst in May. May 31 odds are at 36%, indicating some traders expect a resolution after April. Despite higher odds for May, liquidity is thin with $389,793 in trades and $159,165 in USDC.
Ongoing talks lack progress, keeping traders wary. The diplomatic pause suggests potential developments, but without concrete steps, it’s speculative. A YES share for April 7 at 1¢ offers a 100x payout if resolved, but the market sees this as unlikely.
Watch for signs of intermediary activity or changes in rhetoric from figures like Trump or Rubio. Moves to formalize talks or appoint envoys could shift market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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