China buys 90% of Iran’s oil, stabilizing regime amid US influence decline

The U.S. is losing ground in Southeast Asia as regional elites favor China, which is also a major economic lifeline for Iran. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 11.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

The odds increase follows news of China purchasing 90% of Iran’s oil exports, which stabilizes Iran’s economy and supports its government. The 82-day countdown to June 30 sees tension building, but China’s backing acts as a buffer against regime collapse. It takes $22,171 to move the odds by 5 points, suggesting institutional players are involved. The largest move was a modest 1-point drop this morning, and the market has been generally stable despite the recent uptick.

Why it matters

China’s deepening economic ties with Iran decrease the likelihood of an imminent regime change. Their strategic partnership provides Iran with financial resilience, reducing the impact of international sanctions. A YES share at 11¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, an 8.7x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a significant internal or external shock within the next 82 days.

What to watch

Key signals: IRGC activity, Assembly of Experts meetings, or shifts in U.S. foreign policy that might weaken China’s influence or Iran’s stability. Any disruption to China’s oil purchases from Iran would remove the main economic prop keeping the regime funded.

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