China considers lifting Taiwan TV, import bans after KMT visit

China has shown willingness to lift Taiwanese TV and import restrictions following a KMT visit, and the Polymarket contract on Xi Jinping meeting Cheng Li-wun by June 30 sits at 100.0% YES.

The move is part of China’s diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s opposition KMT, bypassing the ruling DPP. The June 30 market climbed from 98% a week ago to its current ceiling. Traders treat the meeting as virtually certain, given Cheng Li-wun’s ongoing “peace tour” in China.

Trading volume is at $97,802 in daily USDC exchanged, showing strong conviction. The negligible gap between face value and actual USDC points to consistent, genuine interest rather than speculative churn. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point uptick, confirming stable expectations.

China’s willingness to engage with the KMT while freezing out the DPP could reshape Taiwan’s political dynamics ahead of the 2028 elections. At 100¢, a YES share pays $1, a 1.0x return that prices in certainty. Anyone betting against a meeting would need concrete evidence of a diplomatic breakdown to justify the position.

Watch for official announcements from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office or changes to Cheng’s itinerary. A confirmed meeting date would lock in current pricing.

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