The US Chamber of Commerce report warns that China’s industrial strategy threatens $650 billion in G-7 manufacturing output by 2030, equal to 12% of exports from advanced economies.

The report, “China’s Next Generation Industrial Policy,” describes this as an evolution of Made in China 2025, fueled by state subsidies that doubled China’s manufacturing trade surplus to $2 trillion by 2025.

The sectors in the crosshairs

Chemicals, machinery, and automotive face the greatest risk from Chinese overcapacity and pricing. The EU risks $224 billion in lost output, while Germany could lose 120,000 manufacturing jobs by 2026.

AI and semiconductors are also priority targets. China plans to deploy 1,000 industrial AI agents by 2026, aiming to control high-tech supply chains.

Supply chains, overcapacity, and the crypto connection

China acknowledged solar overcapacity on April 20, 2026, but the issue spans batteries and EVs too. Chinese factories produce far more than domestic demand, flooding global markets.

Chinese value-added content in ASEAN final demand rose 60% from 2021-2025. Even products assembled in Vietnam rely increasingly on Chinese components.

What this means for investors

Semiconductors power AI data centers, Bitcoin mining, and blockchain infrastructure. Trade restrictions or supply chain decoupling raise costs for mining operations and hardware-dependent crypto projects.

G-7 coordination against de-industrialization will increase technology sector costs. Mining margins face compression from higher semiconductor prices and longer lead times.

However, supply chain vulnerabilities strengthen the case for decentralized systems in computing, finance, and manufacturing. Distributed alternatives gain appeal as single-point failures become security risks.