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China has reportedly persuaded Iran to engage with the United States, according to The Wall Street Journal. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.
The April 15 market has reached 100%. The April 30, May 31, and June 30 markets have all hit 100% as well. There is no spread between any of the date-specific contracts, from April through December, which means traders treat the ceasefire as already resolved rather than as an ongoing risk.
Total USDC traded over the past 24 hours across these markets is $3,232,549. The May 31 market leads in liquidity, with over $2.3M in daily volume. Order book depth suggests institutional-level participation.
China’s role here is the key variable. This is not a definitive end to hostilities, but it shifts the dynamic from military posturing to active diplomacy. At 100¢, YES shares pay $1, and the flat term structure across all contract dates means the market sees no realistic scenario where talks collapse.
Trump’s upcoming visit to Xi Jinping on May 14-15 is the next date to watch. Any formal announcements or changes in diplomatic language could reinforce or complicate the current consensus. Intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar could also move related markets.
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