China’s crude oil imports have decreased sharply, reaching their lowest level in nearly a decade, according to Bloomberg Markets. In June 2026, the country’s crude oil imports were approximately 6.4 million barrels per day, marking a significant drop driven by disruptions in supply from the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing Iran conflict. This decline represents a nearly 4 million barrels per day reduction from February 2026 levels and a 29% decrease compared to the same period last year. Analysts suggest that China’s shift to domestic stockpiles and structural changes, such as a weaker economy and increased electric vehicle adoption, are contributing to the sustained reduction in oil demand.

Key Takeaways

• China’s crude oil import plunge appears consistent with decreased demand expectations, affecting global oil price forecasts.
• Market pricing suggests participants expect this trend to negatively impact the likelihood of crude oil reaching new all-time highs this year.
• The current odds for crude oil hitting a new peak by September 30 are at 7.9% YES, reflecting a modest increase over the past week.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any changes in China’s economic policy or energy consumption patterns that could influence oil import levels. Additionally, developments in the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, may impact global supply chains and market sentiments. The market’s response to OPEC’s production decisions or any shifts in U.S. sanctions policy could also provide further indications regarding the trajectory of oil prices and import levels.

Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.