Chinese exporters are raising prices as the Iran conflict tightens petrochemical supplies. The odds for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sit at 1.3% YES, down from 2% a day ago.

Market reaction

Traders in the Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market are skeptical. The petrochemical supply squeeze hasn’t moved the needle: the contract holds at 1.3% YES with six days left. Reaching $120/barrel in that window would require a major geopolitical escalation.

Why it matters

Liquidity in this market is thin. Only $2,513 in USDC traded over the past day, and $695 is enough to move the price by 5 percentage points. The largest move was a 1-point spike early in the morning, meaning relatively small trades can shift the contract.

The supply-side picture is real, though. Plastic resin prices have jumped over 30% since mid-March because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Toymakers and other consumer goods manufacturers are flagging potential shortages. The Iran conflict’s effect on petrochemical supply chains supports a bullish case for oil prices, but the market prices almost no chance of a new all-time high before the contract expires.

What to watch

Two things could change the math: OPEC+ announcing production cuts, or further damage to Saudi Aramco facilities. Without either, the probability of an all-time high by April 30 stays near the floor.

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