Coinbase Institutional joins Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust as custodian

Coinbase Institutional is now a custodian for the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, according to an amended SEC filing. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 34.5% YES, while $150,000 is at 9.5% YES.

Market reaction

The Morgan Stanley filing creates a dual-custodian model with Coinbase and BNY Mellon, matching the structure used by other major asset managers. The $100,000 market sits at 34.5% YES, down from 36% yesterday but up from 30% a week ago. The $150,000 market has barely moved, consistent with low confidence in BTC reaching that level.

Combined daily USDC volume across these markets is $3,490, with the $100,000 market trading $2,613 and the $150,000 market trading $877. It takes $2,908 to move the $100,000 market 5 percentage points, suggesting moderate liquidity. For the $150,000 market, just $792 does the same, meaning larger orders can swing the price significantly.

Why it matters

The custodian appointment fits into a broader pattern: over $53 billion has flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs since 2024. Adding a second institutional-grade custodian reduces single-point-of-failure risk for the trust. At 34.5¢, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.9x return. Traders buying at this price are betting on continued institutional adoption or dovish macroeconomic shifts.

What to watch

SEC commentary on dual-custodian structures and any follow-on announcements from other financial institutions could move these odds. Regulatory changes around crypto custody requirements are the most direct catalyst.

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