CoinShares warns Open USD threatens Circle’s USDC stablecoin dominance
A consortium of over 140 firms including Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock is backing a new stablecoin that flips the revenue model on its head, and Circle's stock is already feeling it.
Circle just got put on notice. CoinShares published an analysis on July 13 identifying Open USD, the new stablecoin from the Open Standard consortium, as the most credible competitive threat USDC has faced since its inception.
The warning comes less than two weeks after the OUSD announcement sent Circle’s stock into a tailspin, dropping roughly 17.5% to a four-month low near $62.63 on June 30.
The economics that spooked Wall Street
Instead of the issuer pocketing the reserve yield, OUSD redirects the majority of that income to partner businesses in the consortium. The companies that distribute and integrate the stablecoin get paid for doing so, rather than watching the issuer collect all the economics.
The Open Standard consortium includes over 140 companies, with Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock among the headline names.
What OUSD actually looks like
OUSD is scheduled to launch in the second half of 2026, with Solana as its initial blockchain. The stablecoin will offer fee-free minting and redemption at launch.
Reserve composition, custodian arrangements, and long-term fee structures haven’t been publicly disclosed yet.
CoinShares acknowledged that while the threat is real, OUSD faces an enormous lift in replicating the network effects USDC has built over nearly a decade of integrations across DeFi protocols, centralized exchanges, and payment platforms.
The Coinbase variable
The revenue-sharing agreement between Coinbase and Circle is up for renewal on August 18, 2026. Coinbase has been a major distribution channel for USDC, and the economics of that arrangement have been a point of ongoing negotiation between the two companies.
What this means for investors
Circle’s revenue model depends heavily on reserve interest income. If competitive pressure forces Circle to share more of that yield with distribution partners, whether through an OUSD-like model or simply through renegotiated deals like the Coinbase agreement, margins compress.
CoinShares suggests the short-term impact on USDC itself will be limited, given its deep liquidity, years of protocol integrations, and regulatory track record that a brand-new stablecoin cannot replicate on day one.