Crypto ETFs see $358M Bitcoin inflows, XRP faces outflows

Crypto ETFs pulled in $358.17 million for Bitcoin and $85.18 million for Ethereum, while XRP faced outflows and Solana saw no inflows. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, is at 34.5% YES.

Bitcoin’s ETF inflows point to sustained institutional buying, which is directly relevant to the Bitcoin $100,000 market. The contract dipped slightly from 36% yesterday but is up from 30% a week ago. The $150,000 target sits at 9.5% YES with modest fluctuations. There are 266 days until year-end, and traders may treat these inflow numbers as reason to reassess positioning.

Trading data shows $2,613 in actual USDC volume for the $100,000 market, with $2,908 needed to move the price 5 points. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 2:15 AM. The $150,000 market traded $877 in actual USDC and requires only $792 to shift odds 5 points, making it susceptible to larger single trades.

Institutional rotation toward Bitcoin through ETF inflows lines up with the bullish lean in these contracts. At 35¢ per YES share, traders betting on $100,000 Bitcoin stand to collect a 2.9x return. That bet depends on continued institutional inflows and regulatory clarity around crypto ETFs.

Watch for SEC decisions on crypto products, large position changes from firms like BlackRock or Fidelity, and macroeconomic shifts that could move these odds.

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