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Crypto funds pulled in $1.4 billion in weekly inflows, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin being above $62,000 on April 17 now sits at 100% YES, up from 98% a week ago.
The inflows coincide with easing geopolitical tensions. The April 14 market for Bitcoin above $58,000 is also at 100% YES. Recent ceasefire talks between the US and Iran have reduced the perceived threat of energy disruptions, which appears to be feeding risk appetite.
The April 17 market moved from 98% to 100% YES. The term structure across these contracts shows no deviation, with consistent pricing across near-term Bitcoin markets.
Daily trading volume is $7,996 in actual USDC. Order book depth suggests it would take significant capital to move the market 5 percentage points, which keeps current prices stable. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was negligible.
The geopolitical de-escalation and inflow data point toward a sustained bullish outlook. A YES share at 100¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin holds above $62,000 on April 17. At current pricing, traders treat this outcome as a certainty.
Watch for shifts in US-Iran negotiations. A renewed escalation could force a reassessment of risk appetite and move these contracts off their current ceiling.
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