Crypto funds attracted $1.1 billion in inflows last week, the largest since January, with Bitcoin accounting for most of the capital. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31 is at 35.5% YES on Polymarket.

## Market reaction

The Bitcoin $100,000 market trades $16,678 in face value daily but only $5,971 in actual USDC. It takes $4,757 to shift this market by five points, which means the order book is thin. The Bitcoin $150,000 market sits at 9.5% YES, a far more speculative bet.

## Why it matters

Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound between $66K and $74K even as US-Iran tensions have pushed capital toward crypto as a perceived safe haven. The Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 13 market is at 95.2% YES, so traders expect it to hold above this level in the immediate term. The $1.1 billion in weekly inflows points to institutional capital positioning for continued strength.

Ethereum also benefits from the broader positive sentiment. The Ethereum above $1,800 on April 13 market is at 99.8% YES, up from 99% a day ago. Ethereum isn’t leading inflows, but Bitcoin’s momentum is keeping ETH prices stable.

## What to watch

The inflow surge may not translate to immediate price jumps given cross-asset headwinds like inflation concerns. At 35.5¢, a YES share on Bitcoin hitting $100,000 pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.8x return. That payout requires a strong catalyst pushing Bitcoin toward $100K by year-end. Watch for institutional adoption announcements, geopolitical developments, and regulatory moves. BlackRock or MicroStrategy could swing sentiment with large Bitcoin purchases or ETF inflows.

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