SpaceX hasn’t even started trading on the Nasdaq yet, and crypto markets have already decided the IPO price is too cheap.

Synthetic perpetual futures tied to SpaceX on Hyperliquid have pushed implied valuations well past the company’s official IPO terms of $135 per share, which target a valuation in the range of $1.77 to $1.8 trillion. The SPCX-USDC perpetual contract launched in mid-May 2026 with a $150 reference price and has since surged to highs of $216, implying a valuation comfortably above $2 trillion.

Polymarket, the prediction platform that has become a go-to barometer for event-driven sentiment, currently assigns a 64% probability that SpaceX will close its first trading day with a valuation exceeding $2 trillion.

The numbers behind the hype

SpaceX is targeting a $75 billion raise through its Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX, with trading expected to begin around June 12, 2026. The traditional offering has reportedly attracted over $250 billion in demand, making it roughly fourfold oversubscribed.

On the crypto side, derivative volumes tied to SpaceX contracts have surpassed $500 million in single-day trading sessions.

The gap between Hyperliquid’s implied valuation (north of $2 trillion at recent peaks) and SpaceX’s official IPO terms ($1.77-$1.8 trillion) represents roughly a 15-40% premium depending on when you check.

SpaceX’s hidden crypto angle

Buried in SpaceX’s IPO filings is a detail that crypto-native investors have latched onto: the company holds approximately 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet. At various reporting dates during the filing process, that stash has been valued between $1.29 billion and $1.42 billion.

What this means for investors

The risk here is obvious. Perpetual futures on Hyperliquid are synthetic instruments, meaning they track market sentiment about SpaceX’s price rather than actual ownership in the company. If SpaceX opens below $135 or disappoints on its first day, leveraged long positions on Hyperliquid could unwind fast. Single-day volumes of $500 million-plus create the conditions for sharp liquidation cascades in a downturn.

For investors watching from the sidelines, the key metric to track on June 12 is simple: where does SPCX open relative to $135, and how quickly does it approach (or blow past) the $2 trillion valuation that Polymarket and Hyperliquid traders have been betting on.