Crypto trading volume drops amid US-Iran tensions, Bitcoin at $100K odds fall

Spot and derivatives trading and website traffic decreased across major exchanges in March 2026. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end is at 34.5% YES, down from 36% yesterday.

The decline in trading activity points to bearish sentiment in the crypto market, likely driven by President Trump’s recent global tariffs and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. The $100,000 Bitcoin price target is the focus, with odds slipping 1.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours. The $150,000 target sits at 9.5% YES, unchanged since yesterday but down from 10% a week ago.

Combined 24-hour volume is $16,743 in face value but only $3,490 in actual USDC traded, so capital inflows are thin. Order book depth shows it takes $2,908 to move the $100,000 market by five points, while just $792 can swing the $150,000 market the same distance, a sign of how shallow that book is. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point spike at 2:15 AM.

Risk-off sentiment prevails, driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressure. At 35¢, a YES share on the $100,000 market pays $1 if it resolves, offering a 2.9x return. For this bet to look attractive, investors would need convincing signals of an upturn, such as dovish Fed actions or significant institutional buying.

Watch for statements from the SEC or major institutional investors, and developments in the U.S.-Iran situation. Either could move market sentiment and Bitcoin’s price quickly.

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