SpaceX has barely had time to settle into life as a public company, and Wall Street’s most vocal tech bull is already putting a number on its future.

Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities initiated coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target. The stock closed near $171 on July 1, which means Ives sees roughly 12% upside from current levels.

The bull case: Starlink now, Starship later

The $190 target is anchored to Wedbush’s fiscal year 2028 revenue estimates, which imply an enterprise value of approximately $2.5 trillion.

The near-term thesis rests almost entirely on Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet constellation. Ives sees the subscription business as the company’s most immediate profit engine. Starlink currently has around 12 million subscribers generating an average revenue per user of approximately $66.

Starlink has penetrated less than 1% of the global broadband and telecom market.

The longer-term story is Starship. Ives frames SpaceX not just as a rocket company or an internet provider, but as a future AI infrastructure leader. Starship’s reusability dramatically lowers the cost of putting things in orbit, which enables scaling of satellite constellations and expands data infrastructure relevant to AI.

Post-IPO reality check

SpaceX completed what was described as a record-setting IPO in mid-June 2026. Shares experienced notable volatility in the days following the listing. On the morning Ives’ coverage note dropped, the stock actually dipped in early trading amid broader market conditions.

What this means for investors

Ives has been one of the most prominent tech analysts on Wall Street, known for his bullish calls on companies including Tesla and Apple. A 12% implied upside from current levels is relatively modest by Ives’ own standards.

SpaceX is being positioned not alongside traditional aerospace names like Boeing or Lockheed Martin, but against AI infrastructure plays.

For investors weighing an entry, the key metric to watch is Starlink subscriber growth over the next several quarters. If that less-than-1% penetration number starts climbing meaningfully, the revenue trajectory could justify valuations even north of Ives’ target. If subscriber adds plateau or ARPU compresses due to competitive pressure from Amazon’s Project Kuiper or other entrants, the $2.5 trillion enterprise value framework starts looking very generous very quickly.