The European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued a high-risk Conflict Zone Information Bulletin on July 14, directing EU-regulated airlines to avoid airspace over Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and the western Gulf of Oman. The advisory runs through July 29 and stems from what EASA describes as escalating military tensions between the US and Iran.

What’s happening in the Gulf

The current crisis traces back to a ceasefire between the US and Iran that was initiated on April 8, 2026. That ceasefire was extended by 60 days but has since been violated in ways that EASA clearly considers significant enough to ground commercial flights across a massive swath of Gulf airspace.

Iranian missile strikes on a US military base in Jordan triggered the latest round of escalation. The US responded with its own military actions, and the situation has deteriorated rapidly enough for Europe’s aviation safety authority to issue its most serious category of warning.

Five sovereign nations’ airspaces are now effectively off-limits to EU-regulated carriers. Airlines that normally fly through this airspace will face mandatory rerouting, longer flight times, and significantly increased fuel costs.

The aviation fallout and broader market ripple effects

Airlines are the most obvious first-order casualty. Carriers that rely heavily on Gulf hub airports, think Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, and the European airlines with extensive Gulf routing, face immediate operational disruption. Mandatory rerouting means burning more fuel on longer paths, which hits margins directly.

The two-week window of the EASA advisory, through July 29, creates a defined period of elevated uncertainty.