Gediminas Simkus, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council and Governor of the Bank of Lithuania, has injected a fresh dose of ambiguity into an already murky rate outlook. The timing of a second rate hike, he says, remains unclear.

From coin flip to conviction, and back again

Simkus has had quite the journey in 2026. Back on February 9, he described the probability of the ECB’s next move being a hike or a cut as “50/50,” citing geopolitical uncertainty as the primary source of confusion.

By late April, his tone began to shift. On April 22, he acknowledged that a rate hike was possible but urged caution against moving too quickly. Then on May 4, he went further, describing a June rate hike as likely, pointing to inflation risks that had become “sufficiently obvious.”

Now, the pendulum appears to have swung again. The timing of a second hike is, in Simkus’s view, anything but settled.

Where the ECB stands today

The ECB held its key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting. The deposit facility rate sits at 2.00%, with the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%.

Markets are currently pricing in two quarter-point hikes for 2026, with the first potentially arriving as soon as June. The driving forces behind the hawkish repricing include energy costs that have climbed on the back of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and core inflation metrics that have proven stickier than the ECB’s models projected.

Why crypto investors should pay attention

Simkus hasn’t mentioned digital assets in any of his public remarks on monetary policy this year. Two 25-basis-point increases would bring the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. The signal matters as much as the magnitude.

For investors positioning around ECB decisions, the June meeting is the obvious focal point. If the first hike materializes, attention will immediately turn to whether Simkus and his colleagues provide any guidance on the second. Based on his latest remarks, don’t expect a clear answer.